The current drought outlook is the worst in the last 40 years with a high likelihood of a fifth failed rainy season for October, November, and December expected to increase the number of people facing food insecurity from 3.5 million to 4.35 million.
SMART surveys conducted in June/July 2022, show a significantly deteriorating nutrition situation in Arid and Semi-Arid Land regions (ASAL), with almost 1 in every 2.4 children suffering from malnutrition in Turkana South, one of the most affected areas.
8,071 children (4,107 girls and 3,964 boys) were admitted for treatment of severe acute malnutrition and 168,067 primary caregivers of children received infant young child feeding counselling in target counties during the reporting period.
In August, 15,328 people (3,825 men, 3,985 women, 3,681 boys and 3,837 girls) were reached with safe water through the rehabilitation of 5 non-functional boreholes.
During the reporting period, 5,107 people (1,123 girls, 985 boys, 1,024 men and 1,975 women) were reached with critical life-saving integrated outreach services linked to targeted and supported health facilities.
In July, 2,915 children (1,346 girls and 1,569 boys) were reached with education interventions, increasing UNICEF’s cumulative education reach to 30,062 (13,403 girls and 16,659 boys or 17 per cent of target) since April 2022. At the start of the school year in September, water scarcity and lack of school meals programme are expected to significantly impact attendance, heightening the risk of dropouts.
UNICEF’s funding requirement for the period April – December 2022 remains at US$ 67.8 million with a funding gap of US$ 33.7 million, or 50 per cent.
Situation Overview & Humanitarian Needs
The drought continues to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in Kenya. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) rates the current drought as the worst in the last 40 years due to the cumulative impacts of four consecutive failed rainy seasons with the highest impact in all Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) counties. From the start of March 2020, the seasonal cumulative rainfall has been less than 85 percent of the 1981-2010 average across much of Kenya. There is also a strong probability of a fifth consecutive below-average rainy season during the October-December 2022 short rains1 and NDMA. Based on the Long Rains Assessment (August 2020), projections show that by October 2022, the number of food insecure population will rise to 4.35 million people. The number of people in need is projected to increase from 3.5 million reported in July/August Long Rains Assessment (LRA) to about 4.35 million people.
The SMART surveys conducted in June/July 2022, show that the nutrition situation has significantly deteriorated in the Arid and Semi-Arid Land regions (ASAL), ranging from critical to extremely critical, and are higher than those reported during the 2011 Horn of Africa crisis with almost 1 in every 2.4 children suffering from malnutrition in Turkana South, one of the most affected areas. The deteriorating nutrition situation is mainly attributed to worsening food insecurity characterized by low milk availability, unfavourable terms of trade, increasing food prices and water stress which is expected to continue during the dry weather in the projection period. The total number of acutely malnourished children between 6-59 months that are in need of treatment has reached nearly a million (884,464), with a Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) caseload of 222,720 and Moderate Malnutrition (MAM) caseload of 661,744, and with 115,725 pregnant and lactating women acutely malnourished and in need of treatment.
Around 20 – 30 per cent of the population in ASALs have minimal to no access to essential health with outpatient attendance in health facilities having reduced by 42 per cent due to population movement, poorly supplied health facilities, insecurity, and the inadequate scale of outreaches.
In the 15 most affected counties, 4.2 million people need access to safe water where the average individual water consumption has decreased by 4-8 litres from 15-20 litres per day. The ongoing data collection exercise by UNICEF and county government water departments identified 973 out of 4,375 boreholes (22 per cent) still non-functional affecting 2.9 million people. Water hauling distances increased to an average of 2 to 6 km, up from the five-year average of 1 to 2 km. Scarce water and pasture have led to the deterioration of livestock with increased mortalities (over 2.1 million livestock dead) and low milk production in 83 per cent of counties.
Over 400,000 learners are affected by the drought and about 66,000 are not attending school due to drought. The main drivers of increased school absenses include the increased migration of families in search for water; reduced sanitation in school; absence of school meals; inability to pay school fees; and children caring for livestock.
A total of 559,282 refugees and asylum seekers continue to live in Kenya, 53.4 per cent of whom are from Somalia, 25.1 per cent from South Sudan, 8.9 per cent from Congo and 5.6 per cent from Ethiopia and the remaining are from other nationalities5. Of these refugees, 42 per cent live in Kakuma/Kalobeyei, 42 per cent in Dadaab and the remaining 16 per cent live in urban settlements. Continuing instability and drought in the HoA region may lead to more inflows of people into Kenya, which will require additional resources in order to respond to the multitude of emergencies resulting from COVID-19, drought, communal conflict flued by competition over resources, and diseases outbreaks such as measles and yellow fever.
Source: UN Children’s Fund